Beyond Mars and Venus? Approaches to space commercialisation in contemporary transatlantic relations

Abstract

This article explores how transatlantic tensions are transforming outer space, contrasting US commercial dominance with the EU’s regulatory, risk-averse approach. In the third space age, the US leadership in reusability, mega-constellations, and contracts has led to asymmetric dependence: European payloads launch on US rockets, European users rely on US LEO connectivity, and crisis management depends on US-owned space systems. Europe’s response focuses on regulatory power rather than pure disruption amid a fragmented capital market, encumbered innovation and limited launch capacity. The article assesses the EU Space Act as a means of consolidating the Union’s internal market and setting external standards. Its key regulatory measures – mandatory trackability, debris-mitigation plans, cybersecurity risk management, and life-cycle assessment – aim to embed sustainability into licensing, reflecting a Brussels-effect strategy. A transatlantic divide could be imminent: if US companies continue prioritising a first-mover strategy based on speed and scale, while Europe increases its focus on prescriptive safeguards, divergence will intensify. The EU might face higher costs, more complex access to US-provided space services, and increased trade tensions. Security considerations further entwine the commercial and strategic dimensions. Ultimately, regulation alone cannot bridge Europe’s capability gap, a challenge that requires patient capital, the capacity to absorb it, and the ability to scale the market at speed.